Are the A's teasing me again?

Two seasons ago, I stuck my neck out in my 2009 Divisional picks by going with the Oakland A's to win the West. We had just come off seasons where teams like the Angels, the Marlins, the Tigers, the struggling Cardinals, the Rockies and Rays had won pennants that confounded the experts.

So I thought "Why not go against the grain? If I am right with my pick, then I look like a genius."

Then again, if the pick flops, then I look like a moron.

I had the 2009 Oakland Athletics winning the World Series.
They finished in dead last place, 22 games behind the Angels.

WHOOPS!

But now I am looking at this team, and I can't help but wonder if I should pick them again.

They just added Brian Fuentes to the roster and he should make their bullpen pretty damn deep. Andrew Bailey, Grant Balfour, Brad Ziegler and Brian Fuentes in the pen?

Closing out a rotation of Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson?

(I am not going to include Rich Harden. Any day he is NOT on the disabled list is a bonus.)

Couple that with Hideki Matsui and a few other bats added to the lineup... Texas losing Cliff Lee and the Angels not being able to sign anyone and Seattle in flux...

Dare I do it?
Dare I make the pick again?

My 2009 picks of Oakland and Cincinnati doesn't look so outlandish for 2011.

But can I pick Oakland?
Or are they teasing me.

Maybe I'll pick the Mariners.

Rest in Peace, Red the Fish

Today we lost our fish, Red.
My son Aidan named him. He took one look at him and said "He's red. So his name is Red." And how is that less of a creative name than "Sully."

Before the 2010 postseason, I held up a logo of a baseball team on either side of his tank. Whichever side he swam to, I wrote down as his prediction.

He was pretty good.
In fact he predicted EVERY SINGLE post season series correctly until the World Series.
He picked the Rangers to win the World Series.
My wife picked the Giants and won.

Well, now he is gone... flushed to the great unknown.

You were a good fish, Red. We'll miss you. And you were a hell of a lot better at picking playoff series than me.

Rest in peace.

Sully Baseball's Fearless Predictions for 2011

I made my Division and World Series picks...
And now for a prediction for each team.


ANGELS – The most underrated team going into the season. Vernon Wells will rebound, the starting rotation will be the best in the American League. Scott Kazmir is as good as gone, but Matt Palmer steps in to win 13 games in the #4 spot. The Angels will win the Division.




ASTROS - The Astros will surprise a lot of experts by hovering around .500 all season. Wandy Rodriguez will win 14 games, J. A. Happ will win 13 and Jordan Lyles will be in the rotation for the second half of the season and play well. They won't compete in 2011 but will become a trendy pick for 2012.



ATHLETICS – The A’s will contend throughout the season, but the real news will be in where they play. As MLB wrings their hands trying to figure out what to do with the stadium, San Jose will approve financing for a new ballpark, forcing the issue. The A’s will work out a deal similar to the Nationals deal with the Orioles and the end of the 2011 will bring around the announcement that the A’s are heading to the South Bay.



BLUE JAYS – Jose Bautista’s home run total returns to Earth (22 tops.) And he becomes a strange test case of the post steroids era. He has hit 47% of his career homers last year, getting 54 after peaking at 16. That number will stick out, but unless proven otherwise, it has to be looked at as a fluke (unlike Brady Anderson.)



BRAVES – The Braves are good, but Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe come back down to Earth cutting their playoff run just short. Meanwhile Jayson Heyward continues to hit the ball well but Freddie Freeman isn’t ready yet.



BREWERS - The Zack Grienke trade becomes the sequel to the Mariners acquiring Cliff Lee. It looked great in December and it will fall apart grotesquely in practice. The basketball game heard 'round the world will keep the Brewers out of contention. They finish barely above .500. Meanwhile Prince Fielder is dealt to Colorado.



CARDINALS – Colby Rasmus never gets out of the doghouse and is dealt. Rasmus seems to think he has already lined up his MVP cred when he called out Hall of Fame manager Tony LaRussa last year. I can’t imagine life is getting any easier in Cardinal land, especially with the Pujols contract and the Wainwright injury looming over the team. Rasmus will be dealt at the deadline for pitching help and an eye on 2012.


CUBS – Mike Quade is as good as gone. The Cubs are in transition mode and Quade’s job seems to be keep the seat warm. Once some of the bad contracts are shed and some sort of direction if found, Quade will be axed. If he is the manager at the July 31st trade deadline, I will be stunned. LaRussa is courted to be the new manager for 2012 and hopefully brings Pujols with him.



DIAMONDBACKS - Justin Upton and Kirk Gibson have a tense confrontation. The result? He goes on a tear the second half of the season and becomes a trendy pick for 2012 NL MVP. The Diamondbacks finish dead last but there is hope for the future.




DODGERS – Don Mattingly will be a rotten fit for the Dodgers. It is not his fault that the Dodgers don’t have the personnel, but a team in flux like this needs a veteran manager, not someone who will have growing pains. Oddly, this is a team Grady Little should manage, but he is no doubt persona non grata in Dodgertown.



GIANTS – Brandon Belt will be the Giants first baseman by June. With a slimmed down and motivated Pablo Sandoval and a focused Buster Posey, the Giants will have three homegrown stars in their lineup to go with their homegrown rotation and bullpen ace. The Giants pull away and win the Division with a week to spare.


INDIANS – In a lost season in Cleveland, one star will regain his luster. Grady Sizemore will be the Comeback Player of the Year, hitting .300 for the first time in his career, getting his OPS near .900 and stealing 30 bags.



MARINERS – Eric Wedge can’t turn the ship around in his only year in Seattle. Felix Hernandez and Ichiro Suzuki continue to be terrific but Chone Figgins will be shopped in a salary dump, Milton Bradley cut, Jack Cust benched and Jack Wilson will somehow get 400 at bats. Seattle fires Eric Wedge at the end of the year.



MARLINS – The final year in Joe Robbie Stadium (or whatever it is called now) will be amazing and with lots of empty orange seats. Mike Stanton becomes one of the truly exciting players in the game. Hanley Ramirez will have the best year of his career. Josh Johnson will pitch like an ace and the Fish will make the playoffs for their third time in their existence. Edwin Rodriguez keeps his job into the new ballpark.



METS – The July 31st trade deadline will be “Meet the Mets!” time for contenders. With the team facing an economic crisis and virtually no chance to contend, any healthy expensive body is being dealt. Carlos Beltran is good as gone if he can play. Jason Bay will be shipped off too. Maybe even Jose Reyes. David Wright too? It is possible.



NATIONALS - As all attention is placed on Hagerstown and the development of Bryce Harper, the big league club stumbles out of the gate and never recovers. To shake things up Jim Riggleman is let go right after Jim Leyland is fired from the Tigers. But when Leyland turns down the Washington job, interim manager John McLaren finishes the season as Washington looks to court Tony LaRussa in the off season.



ORIOLES – The Birds take a step forward, but Mark Reynolds swings and misses. Now of course Reynolds is going to strike out a lot. He already officially has 6 strikeouts and the season hasn’t started yet. But he will be exposed even more than he was before in Arizona and it just won’t work out in Baltimore. The team itself will start to make strides toward respectability, but Buck Showalter is going to get fed up at how many runners are left in scoring position after a Reynolds at bat.


PADRES - The Padres start the season off well but by June, reality sits in. Heath Bell is shopped around. The Phillies and Angels are interested and he heads north to Anaheim. Cameron Maybin flops and the middle infield of Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett are dealt at the trade deadline.



PHILLIES – Forget Jose Contreras, Ryan Madson or Kyle Kendrick as Brad Lidge's replacement. The Phillies will make a deal for a closer. Detroit's Jose Valverde will be available when the Tigers fall apart and he will be logging saves in Philadelphia by July. The Phillies will go on to win the World Series.



PIRATES - There will be lots of talk about how the Pirates are trying to turn the corner with Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen as the corner stones. But the team can't get out of its own way and Paul Maholm becomes trade bait. Jameson Taillon is on the big league club for good in July.



RANGERS – The good fortune that befell the AL Champion Rangers in 2010 goes away for the defense. They will hit well but will miss Vlad Guerrero more than they expected. The Michael Young controversy sorts itself out as an injury to Ian Kinsler puts Young at second base.



RAYS – Jeremy Hellickson and Reid Brignac will make everyone forget about Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. Hellickson will win 15 games and the Rookie of the Year while Brignac will bring a steady glove up the middle. Meanwhile Manny Ramirez will get a few big hits, but Johnny Damon will contribute next to nothing.


REDS - Aroldis Chapman takes over the bullpen closer role as the Reds role and never look back. Jay Bruce challenges Joey Votto for MVP of the team and Edinson Volquez wins 18 games. The Reds win the Division by 8 games.



RED SOX – The Red Sox will have a solid year, but Josh Beckett will be the 800 pound gorilla of the season. He won’t get it on track and will resemble Jack Morris in 1993. That year Cito Gaston dutifully put him on the mound every 5 days out of respect until an injury mercifully pushed him off the playoff roster. In 2011, the Red Sox will look for any excuse to keep him off the roster 15 days at a time. The Red Sox make the playoffs but fall short in the ALCS.


ROCKIES - Todd Helton will finally run out of gas. And the Rockies will play half heartedly through June. At the trade deadline, hoping to give the team and the lineup a jolt, they part with a prospect and some other farm hands to bring in Prince Fielder. It pays dividends with some big homers in the thin air but he doesn't fit in with the straight laced Rockies clubhouse and is perceived as a mercenary by Colorado fans who prefer Helton. He bolts via free agency.


ROYALS – Alex Gordon will run out of chances but the Royals will surprise everyone by posting a winning season. Billy Butler will be dealt to a contender but never mind that Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas will be in Kansas City by June and give the team a major spark. They will finish the season 84-78.



TIGERS – The Jim Leyland era, which began so wonderfully with the 2006 Tigers, crashes and burns in the first half of the season. Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander will both be solid, but the team will stumble out of the gate and never recover. Leyland will be fired in June and a veteran manage is brought in to pick up the pieces. (Perhaps Ken Macha.)


TWINS – They will fight tooth and nail with the White Sox for the Division with Kansas City breathing down their necks. Delmon Young’s All Star season last year will prove to be a fluke and Justin Morneau just can’t stay healthy. And the good fortune of Carl Pavano will fall off the table and he will be removed from the rotation by July. As the Twins fall short, there will be whispering about replacing Ron Gardenhire.


WHITE SOX – The most fun team to follow this year will be on the South Side of Chicago. I didn’t say the best. I said the most fun. Guillen and Williams will be at each others throat and the Twitters updates will fly. But so will the balls off the bats of Dunn and Konerko. And Jake Peavy will return to make 20 starts, almost all of them in the second half and help pitch the White Sox back into the playoffs.


YANKEES – The “reclamation project” plan for the #5 starter will go about as well as the Red Sox taking a chance with John Smoltz and Brad Penny in 2009. In other words, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Mark Prior, Kevin Millwood and any other washed up pitcher will flop. Look for kids like Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman getting starts after the All Star break.



So let's take a look at these at the end of the year and see what I got right and what looks just damn foolish!

Sully Baseball's Official 2011 Picks... bet on these at your own risk!

In my entire life, I have predicted the World Series champion accurately a grand total of once in my life.



I picked the 1999 New York Yankees to win it all.

Not exactly a brave pick on my part.



Since then...

I picked the Braves to win the 2000 World Series.

I picked the Yankees to win the 2001 World Series.

I picked the A's to win the 2002 World Series.

I picked the Cardinals to win the 2003 World Series.

I picked the Astros to win the 2004 World Series.

I picked the Twins to win the 2005 World Series.

I picked the White Sox to win the 2006 World Series.

I picked the Angels to win the 2007 World Series.

I picked the Red Sox to win the 2008 World Series.

I picked the A's to win the 2009 World Series.

I picked the Yankees to win the 2010 World Series.



So which team am I giving the Kiss of Death to for 2011?



Here are my Division Picks



AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST - Boston Red Sox



AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL – Chicago White Sox



AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim



AMERICAN LEAGUE WILD CARD – New York Yankees



NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST – Philadelphia Phillies



NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL – Cincinnati Reds



NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST – San Francisco Giants



NATIONAL LEAGUE WILD CARD – Florida Marlins





ALCS – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim def. Boston Red Sox in 7

NLCS – Philadelphia Phillies def. Cincinnati Reds in 4



WORLD SERIES – Philadelphia Phillies def. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in 5



Award Predictions



AL MVP – Kevin Youkilis, Boston

NL MVP – Hanley Ramirez, Florida

AL Cy Young – Dan Haren, Los Angeles

NL Cy Young – Josh Johnson, Florida

AL Rookie of the Year – Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay

NL Rookie of the Year – Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati

AL Manager of the Year – Ozzie Guillen, Chicago

NL Manager of the Year – Bruce Bochy, San Francisco

AL Comeback Player of the Year – Grady Sizemore, Cleveland

NL Comeback Player of the Year – Aaron Harang, San Diego



First AL Manager fired – Jim Leyland, Detroit

First NL Manager fired – Jim Riggleman, Washington





So there you have it… Phillies fans, I hope you weren’t hoping for a parade this year. I think your team is going to win, which means DOOM!

Will by NL Central pick be once again a year early?

This September I pointed out that I am not very good at picking who will actually win the NL Central, but I AM good at figuring out that the consensus pick will probably fall short.

In 2009 everyone and their cow was picking the Cubs to win.
I picked the Reds. The Cardinals won (I picked the Cardinals for the Wild Card.)

In 2010 everyone and their moose was picking the Cardinals to win.
I picked the Brewers. The Reds won.

But with Zack Greinke going to the Brewers, I can't help but wonder if the Brewers and their solid rotation and terrific line up, should be considered to be the favorites in a very winnable NL Central.

And would my pick be a year premature?
Am I the baseball predicting equivalent to that show Early Edition?

There's only one way to test it:
I am going to pick the Pittsburgh Pirates to win the 2011 NL Central.
If the Brewers win in 2011 and the Pirates win in 2012, I will be FREAKED OUT!

MY WIFE DEFEATS A FISH!!!!

As I wrote before, my wife and my fish both predicted a Giants and Rangers World Series.

My wife knows a little more than my fish, and yesterday she proved it once and for all.

Wifey picked the Giants to win it.
Red the fish picked the Rangers.

And I've never seen my wife more proud than when she reigned supreme over a fish.

I can make fun of wifey half watching the games and my fish swimming around... but my picks sucked.

I bow to the superior baseball intellects.

It's FISH versus WIFE

My playoff predictions this year were off... As they always are. (So much for my Phillies/Tampa Bay rematch.)

I got the predictions of my two kids, my sister in law and a random coin toss. None of us got a Rangers/Giants match up.


Do you know who DID pick the Giants and the Rangers to win the pennant?

MY WIFE, LISA!

(She picked the Giants because inactive left hander Barry Zito does yoga and the Rangers because she likes Friday Night Lights.)

And do you know who else picked the Giants and the Rangers?

MY FISH, RED!

I held up pieces of paper with pictures of the team logos on either end of Red's tank. Which ever direction he swam to, I marked down as his pick.

Well guess what?
ALL OF THE FISH'S PICKS HAVE BEEN RIGHT!

But here's the rub:
My wife picked the Giants to win the World Series.

My fish picked the Rangers to win the World Series.

Lisa is already talking smack... threatening to eat sushi in front of Red if the Giants win.

So now in our household, it has come down to this. Who will reign supreme? Whose skills of prediction will win out.

Will it be my wife?
Or my fish?

I hope it is my wife.
Why?

Because first of all, I am rooting for the Giants.

And secondly, unlike Luca Brasi, I do NOT sleep with the fishes.

I hate to say "I told you so"... no wait! I LOVE saying "I told you so"

10 days ago I wrote a blog post... basically calling Joe Girardi's pitching rotation for the ALCS insane.

I thought that lining up the rotation so Sabathia would not be available to pitch Game 7, flip flopping Hughes and Pettitte so Andy faced Cliff Lee and throwing A. J. Burnett in Game 4 gave the Rangers a clear and almost unfair advantage in Games 3, 4 and 7.

In other words, Girardi had set up the rotation so the Yankees had no margin for error in Games 1, 2, 5 and 6.

I said that Sabathia needed to throw games 1, 4 and 7. (Spare me the "he's tired" act. He had thrown 6 innings over 2 weeks.)

They needed Pettitte to throw game 2 (because he was their second best option) and start A. J. Burnett against Cliff Lee (consolidating their miserable match ups).

Hughes (available for bullpen work in Games 1 and 2) would be on full rest for Game 5... Pettitte 6 and Sabathia 7th.

Instead they sent out the mismatched 3 and 4 games and lost by a combination of 18-3 in those two games.

The fact that the Yankees were outscored 31-6 in the four losses shows that the pitching kinda sorta favored the Yankees.

It didn't have to be that bad.

I told them so.